Energetic trade-offs in migration decision-making, reproductive effort and subsequent parental care in a long-distance migratory bird.

Migratory species trade-off long-distance movement with survival and reproduction, but the spatio-temporal scales at which these decisions occur are relatively unknown. Technological and statistical advances allow fine-scale study of animal decision-making, improving our understanding of possible causes and therefore conservation management. We quantified effects of reproductive preparation during spring migration on subsequent breeding outcomes, breeding outcomes on autumn migration characteristics and autumn migration characteristics on subsequent parental survival in Greenland white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris). These are long-distance migratory birds with an approximately 50% population decline from 1999 to 2022. We deployed GPS-acceleration devices on adult females to quantify up to 5 years of individual decision-making throughout the annual cycle. Weather and habitat-use affected time spent feeding and overall dynamic body acceleration (i.e. energy expenditure) during spring and autumn. Geese that expended less energy and fed longer during spring were more likely to successfully reproduce. Geese with offspring expended more energy and fed for less time during autumn, potentially representing adverse fitness consequences of breeding. These behavioural comparisons among Greenland white-fronted geese improve our understanding of fitness trade-offs underlying abundance. We provide a reproducible framework for full annual cycle modelling using location and behaviour data, applicable to similarly studied migratory animals.

Genetic Analysis of H5N1 High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus following a Mass Mortality Event in Wild Geese on the Solway Firth.

The United Kingdom (UK) and Europe have seen successive outbreaks of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b high-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) since 2020 peaking in the autumn/winter periods. During the 2021/22 season, a mass die-off event of Svalbard Barnacle Geese (Branta leucopsis) was observed on the Solway Firth, a body of water on the west coast border between England and Scotland. This area is used annually by Barnacle Geese to over-winter, before returning to Svalbard to breed. Following initial identification of HPAIV in a Barnacle Goose on 8 November 2021, up to 32% of the total Barnacle Goose population may have succumbed to disease by the end of March 2022, along with other wild bird species in the area. Potential adaptation of the HPAIV to the Barnacle Goose population within this event was evaluated. Whole-genome sequencing of thirty-three HPAIV isolates from wild bird species demonstrated that there had been two distinct incursions of the virus, but the two viruses had remained genetically stable within the population, whilst viruses from infected wild birds were closely related to those from poultry cases occurring in the same region. Analysis of sera from the following year demonstrated that a high percentage (76%) of returning birds had developed antibodies to H5 AIV. This study demonstrates genetic stability of this strain of HPAIV in wild Anseriformes, and that, at the population scale, whilst there is a significant impact on survival, a high proportion of birds recover following infection.

Differing drivers of decline within a migratory metapopulation has implications for future conservation.

Researchers generally ascribe demographic drivers in a single sub-population and presume they are representative. With this information, practitioners implement blanket conservation measures across metapopulations to reverse declines. However, such approaches may not be appropriate in circumstances where sub-populations are spatiotemporally segregated and exposed to different environmental variation. The Greenland White-fronted Goose, Anser albifrons flavirostris, is an Arctic-nesting migrant that largely comprises two sub-populations (delineated by northerly and southerly breeding areas in west Greenland). The metapopulation has declined since 1999 but this trend is only mirrored in one sub-population and the causes of this disparity are unclear. Here we compare the drivers and trends of productivity in both sub-populations using population- and individual-level analysis. We examined how temperature and precipitation influenced population-level reproductive success over 37 years and whether there was a change in the relationship when metapopulation decline commenced. In addition, we used biologging devices to remotely classify incubation events for 86 bird-years and modelled how phenology and environmental conditions influenced individual-level nest survival. Correlations between reproductive success and temperature/precipitation on the breeding grounds have weakened for both sub-populations. This has resulted in lower reproductive success for the northerly, but not southerly breeding sub-population, which at the individual-level appears to be driven by lower nest survival. Earlier breeding ground arrival and less precipitation during incubation increased nest survival in the northerly breeding population, while no factors examined were important for the southerly breeding sub-population. This suggests reproductive success is driven by different factor(s) in the two sub-populations. Demographic rates and their environmental drivers differ between the sub-populations examined here and consequently we encourage further decomposition of demography within metapopulations. This is important for conservation practitioners to consider as bespoke conservation strategies, targeting different limiting factors, may be required for different sub-populations.

Time-varying effects of local weather on behavior and probability of breeding deferral in two Arctic-nesting goose populations.

Arctic-nesting geese face energetic challenges during spring migration, including ecological barriers and weather conditions (e.g., precipitation and temperature), which in long-lived species can lead to a trade-off to defer reproduction in favor of greater survival. We used GPS location and acceleration data collected from 35 greater white-fronted geese of the North American midcontinent and Greenland populations at spring migration stopovers, and novel applications of Bayesian dynamic linear models to test daily effects of minimum temperature and precipitation on energy expenditure (i.e., overall dynamic body acceleration, ODBA) and proportion of time spent feeding (PTF), then examined the daily and additive importance of ODBA and PTF on probability of breeding deferral using stochastic antecedent models. We expected distinct responses in behavior and probability of breeding deferral between and within populations due to differences in stopover area availability. Time-varying coefficients of weather conditions were variable between ODBA and PTF, and often did not show consistent patterns among birds, indicating plasticity in how individuals respond to conditions. An increase in antecedent ODBA was associated with a slightly increased probability of deferral in midcontinent geese but not Greenland geese. Probability of deferral decreased with increased PTF in both populations. We did not detect any differentially important time periods. These results suggest either that movements and behavior throughout spring migration do not explain breeding deferral or that ecological linkages between bird decisions during spring and subsequent breeding deferral were different between populations and across migration but occurred at different time scales than those we examined.

Potential Effect of Migration Strategy on Pollutant Occurrence in Eggs of Arctic Breeding Barnacle Geese ( Branta leucopsis).

Arctic-breeding geese acquire resources for egg production from overwintering grounds, spring stopover sites and breeding grounds, where pollutant exposure may differ. We investigated the effect of migration strategy on pollutant occurrence of lipophilic polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and protein-associated poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) and mercury (Hg) in eggs of herbivorous barnacle geese ( Branta leucopsis) from an island colony on Svalbard. Stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) in eggs and vegetation collected along the migration route were similar. Pollutant concentrations in eggs were low, reflecting their terrestrial diet (∑PCB = 1.23 ± 0.80 ng/g ww; ∑PFAS = 1.21 ± 2.97 ng/g ww; Hg = 20.17 ± 7.52 ng/g dw). PCB concentrations in eggs increased with later hatch date, independent of lipid content which also increased over time. Some females may remobilize and transfer more PCBs to their eggs, by delaying migration several weeks, relying on more polluted and stored resources, or being in poor body condition when arriving at the breeding grounds. PFAS and Hg occurrence in eggs did not change throughout the breeding season, suggesting migration has a greater effect on lipophilic pollutants. Pollutant exposure during offspring production in arctic-breeding migrants may result in different profiles, with effects becoming more apparent with increasing trophic levels.

A new molecular diagnostic tool for surveying and monitoring Triops cancriformis populations.

The tadpole shrimp, Triops cancriformis, is a freshwater crustacean listed as endangered in the UK and Europe living in ephemeral pools. Populations are threatened by habitat destruction due to land development for agriculture and increased urbanisation. Despite this, there is a lack of efficient methods for discovering and monitoring populations. Established macroinvertebrate monitoring methods, such as net sampling, are unsuitable given the organism's life history, that include long lived diapausing eggs, benthic habits and ephemerally active populations. Conventional hatching methods, such as sediment incubation, are both time consuming and potentially confounded by bet-hedging hatching strategies of diapausing eggs. Here we develop a new molecular diagnostic method to detect viable egg banks of T. cancriformis, and compare its performance to two conventional monitoring methods involving diapausing egg hatching. We apply this method to a collection of pond sediments from the Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust Caerlaverock National Nature Reserve, which holds one of the two remaining British populations of T. cancriformis. DNA barcoding of isolated eggs, using newly designed species-specific primers for a large region of mtDNA, was used to estimate egg viability. These estimates were compared to those obtained by the conventional methods of sediment and isolation hatching. Our method outperformed the conventional methods, revealing six ponds holding viable T. cancriformis diapausing egg banks in Caerlaverock. Additionally, designed species-specific primers for a short region of mtDNA identified degraded, inviable eggs and were used to ascertain the levels of recent mortality within an egg bank. Together with efficient sugar flotation techniques to extract eggs from sediment samples, our molecular method proved to be a faster and more powerful alternative for assessing the viability and condition of T. cancriformis diapausing egg banks.